Publication Name	World Journal of Gastroenterology
Manuscript ID	87364
Country	China

Received	2023-08-07 09:42
Peer-Review Started	2023-08-05 06:16
To Make the First Decision
Return for Revision	2023-09-18 22:37
Revised	2023-09-28 03:55
Second Decision	2023-10-13 01:54
Accepted by Journal Editor-in-Chief
Accepted by Executive Editor-in-Chief	2023-10-23 06:43
Articles in Press	2023-10-23 06:43
Publication Fee Transferred
Edit the Manuscript by Language Editor	2023-10-12 04:16
Typeset the Manuscript	2023-10-30 07:23
Publish the Manuscript Online	2023-11-13 06:46

ISSN	1007-9327 (print) and 2219-2840 (online)
Open Access	This article is an open-access article that was selected by an in-house editor and fully peer-reviewed by external reviewers. It is distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: https://creativecommons.org/Licenses/by-nc/4.0/
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Category	Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Manuscript Type	Retrospective Study
Article Title	Time series analysis-based seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average to estimate hepatitis B and C epidemics in China
Manuscript Source	Unsolicited Manuscript
All Author List	Yong-Bin Wang, Si-Yu Qing, Zi-Yue Liang, Chang Ma, Yi-Chun Bai and Chun-Jie Xu
ORCID	Author(s) ORCID Number Yong-Bin Wang http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7854-7020 Si-Yu Qing http://orcid.org/0009-0008-4916-5881 Zi-Yue Liang http://orcid.org/0009-0009-7950-0545 Chang Ma http://orcid.org/0009-0003-5940-5619 Yi-Chun Bai http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0998-8441 Chun-Jie Xu http://orcid.org/0009-0005-2824-1695
Funding Agency and Grant Number	Funding Agency Grant Number the Key Scientific Research Project of Universities in Henan Province 21A330004 Natural Science Foundation in Henan Province 222300420265
Corresponding Author	Yong-Bin Wang, MD, Researcher, Teacher, Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Xinxiang Medical University, No. 601 Jinsui Road, Hongqi District, Xinxiang 453003, Henan Province, China. 191035@xxmu.edu.cn
Key Words	Hepatitis; Seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average; Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average; Prediction; Epidemic; Time series analysis
Core Tip	This retrospective study used a seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (SARFIMA) to monitor hepatitis B (HB) and hepatitis C (HC) epidemics, and its forecasting potential was then compared to that of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) (SARIMA). The resulting forecast error rates under the SARFIMA were less than those under the SARIMA. The integration of SARFIMA into public health decision-making for the management of HB and HC epidemics can result in more informed interventions. The predicted HB totaled 9865400 [95% confidence interval (95%CI): 7508093-12222709] cases and HC totaled 1659485 (95%CI: 856681-2,462290) cases in 2030, resulting in major challenges to eliminate hepatitis in China by 2030.
Publish Date	2023-11-13 06:46
Citation	Wang YB, Qing SY, Liang ZY, Ma C, Bai YC, Xu CJ. Time series analysis-based seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average to estimate hepatitis B and C epidemics in China. World J Gastroenterol 2023; 29(42): 5716-5727
URL	https://www.wjgnet.com/1007-9327/full/v29/i42/5716.htm
DOI	https://dx.doi.org/10.3748/wjg.v29.i42.5716

Full Article (PDF)	WJG-29-5716-with-cover.pdf
Full Article (Word)	WJG-29-5716.docx
Manuscript File	87364_Auto_Edited-CL-WangTQ-JLW.docx
Answering Reviewers	87364-Answering reviewers.pdf
Audio Core Tip	87364-Audio core tip.mp3
Biostatistics Review Certificate	87364-Biostatistics statement.pdf
Conflict-of-Interest Disclosure Form	87364-Conflict-of-interest statement.pdf
Copyright License Agreement	87364-Copyright license agreement.pdf
Approved Grant Application Form(s) or Funding Agency Copy of any Approval Document(s)	87364-Grant application form(s).pdf
Signed Informed Consent Form(s) or Document(s)	87364-Informed consent statement.pdf
Institutional Review Board Approval Form or Document	87364-Institutional review board statement.pdf
Non-Native Speakers of English Editing Certificate	87364-Language certificate.pdf
Supplementary Material	87364-Supplementary material.pdf
Peer-review Report	87364-Peer-review(s).pdf
Journal Editor-in-Chief Review Report	87364-Journal editor-in-chief review report.pdf
Scientific Misconduct Check	87364-Bing-Lin C-2.png
Scientific Editor Work List	87364-Scientific editor work list.pdf
CrossCheck Report	87364-CrossCheck.png
CrossCheck Report	87364-CrossCheck report.pdf